by Roberto Di Ferdinando
The bloody uprising in Libya seems to appear different in the manner in which it is developing and in the results, from neighboring Tunisia and Egypt.
First, the scarcity of information and news from Libya. The riots in Egypt and Tunisia have been documented by images and reports from newspapers and newscasts, albeit with many difficulties reporters have told the international events of local populations. Events that have gone before and then Mubarak Ben Ali to "abdicate". In Tripoli, however, resists Gaddafi, amid a thousand difficulties and mutiny of some of his faithful, but continues to resist. The perception is that the insurgents have reached their maximum effort, "liberating" some cities (Misurata, Benghazi, Al Bayda, Derna and Tobruk), but that does not have the strength, especially military, to launch the final assault on Tripoli and then to Gaddafi . The Rais, in turn, reduced and even less blowhard, resistant, strong and also large parts of the army of mercenaries who are faithful and they are massively and with brutal violence, dismissing the attack by insurgents in other parts of the country still struggles. It therefore seems to be a stalemate, an impasse between the two sides in the conflict. The game seems to play now in diplomatic circles. The revolt of Tunis, in fact, had not warmed up the hearts of Western governments, too small to worry about the country for more than due. Different international attention paid to events in Egypt. Egypt is in fact a country of over 80 million inhabitants, with a population of more than 50% below the age of 25, unsatisfied and disappointed, where the Muslim Brotherhood, the outlawed fundamentalist opposition, has still a good result, is a country that borders Israel, with whom he still signed and respected to this day a peace treaty, Cairo, also controls the Suez Canal and inland tankers. But here to reassure the U.S. was the fact that the leadership of the country was taken by the army of the pharaohs Egypt, a secular institution which owes its power and strength to the billions of dollars from the United States. Different then the situation in Libya: Gaddafi stands here, having a good army to confront domestic rebels, the risk of infiltration of Al Qaeda in the population is high, the beaches of Libya, which is currently unprotected, leaving the waves of migration to the coast European, while in other ways Earth thousands of refugees are heading to the already battered Tunisia and Egypt, the rebels control some important oil sites, but many remain in the hands of the government of Tripoli that Gaddafi could also be used as a bargaining chip to release the international pressure on itself, the provision Libyan oil, in fact, could be at risk in the short (Italy depends for much of Libyan oil and gas), and again, the Gaddafi family in recent decades has funded and made investments in many economies around the world and depend from this money, another weapon in the hands of Nasser to negotiate its position with the West.
The United States has, however, endorsed the UN decision to remand to the Gaddafi International Criminal Court, the Obama administration also is providing humanitarian armed to stop the Libyan air force in bombing the rebels (to Libya are moving U.S. aircraft carriers from the Red Sea as they are alerting and preparing U.S. and NATO bases closer to Libya) and to support and assist with financing the insurgents, the British hope to even arming the rebels, while the EU is preparing plans for sanctions against Libya, as well as to accommodate the refugees. But all this activity has raised some western discontent in some non-European capital. Russia and China, for example, are ready to condemn any interference in the western Libyan issue.
difficult, therefore, without a gesture or a relaxing escape Gaddafi find a peaceful solution to events in Libya. The concern is that the rais therefore, not only resist, but, given the news that fragmented in the last hours are coming to us, to regain its positions with bloody violence and revenge, and restore the status quo, which could be positively accepted even by some governments and economic markets for decades in business with terrorist Gaddafi. RDF
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